The number of known active COVID-19 cases decreased by 25% over the weekend, from 271 on Friday to 203 on Monday, according to the Emergency Operations Center. On top of this, the EOC reports that the number of people hospitalized for reasons associated with COVID decreased from three to one over the weekend. 

Even though the number of COVID cases dropped significantly, hospitalizations are expected to increase, according to Amy Corder, the incident commander at Providence Kodiak Island Medical Center. 

Between Sept. 27 and Oct. 2, there have been 30 new reported cases on the island, according to the EOC. Hospitalizations follow diagnoses by two weeks, so even if the number of known cases continues to drop, Corder said the healthcare system would continue to process the most recent spike.

PKIMC is already dealing with an increase in patients over the past two to three weeks, Corder said in a past interview. Providence Kodiak declared it had adopted crisis standards of care, according to a news release from the Department of Health and Social Services that was sent out on Saturday. 

“This is just a formal statement at the state [level] that recognizes the current situation around the state… At this time we are not in a local crisis,” Corder said. “But the state hospital systems remain strained and we continue to anticipate difficulty with transfers and increased hospitalizations.”

Kodiak has the highest number of COVID cases per capita in the country, according to the New York Times. The Times uses data from state and national government reports to draw conclusions about COVID numbers per capita. 

There are proportionately 1,213 cases of COVID per 100,000 people in Kodiak as of Monday, Kodiak resident Aaren Ellsworth found. There are most likely more people that are sick than are being diagnosed, according to Ellsworth.

Ellsworth has been independently analyzing data presented by the EOC since the start of the pandemic.

Even though the national average of COVID cases is decreasing, diagnoses in Alaska continue to rise. Currently, Alaska has the highest percentage of active COVID cases per capita in the country. Providence Alaska Medical Center, the state’s largest hospital located in Anchorage, started rationing care in September. 

“This allows us to make decisions to provide the best care available recognizing that we may not be able to transfer patients to a higher level of care,” Corder said. “[We] will need to do the best we can at the local level.”

There have been 2,250 known cases of COVID on the island since the start of the pandemic, 84 hospitalizations and seven deaths, according to the EOC.

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