Kodiak’s late sockeye run is coming to a close, and overall numbers are disappointing, commercial area biologist Jeff Wadle of the Alaska Department of Fish and Game said.

“It’s pretty much winding down now,” Wadle said.

He said sockeye wasn’t forecast to be as weak as it has been, but the south end of the island, forecast to be moderate, actually came in slightly better than expected.

“Sockeye has been pretty variable around the island this year,” Wadle said. “Some of the systems did very well. The south end of the island around Alitak did pretty well this year.”

Fish and Game reported on its Web site that the Alitak District sockeye salmon harvest to date is 692,249 fish. That’s above the recent 10-year average and well above the 2008 forecast for the district.

Wadle said some of the bigger systems did better than forecast as well, but even they were weaker than he expected in terms of escapement numbers.

“The west side’s major system, Ayakulik, didn’t do very well with sockeye,” he said. “We didn’t hit our minimum goals this year.”

According to Fish and Game, the Ayakulik sockeye run was 158,138 fish as of Aug. 28, below the current escapement goal of 198,961 to 496,997 fish.

Wadle said pink salmon escapements were as weak as forecast this year.

“We were able to keep it closed just long enough to get our minimum escapements, but just barely,” he said. “The pink forecast, which is typically a little low compared to what the harvests are, was actually right on this year, unfortunately.”

According to Fish and Game, chum salmon returns appear strong, with daily harvest tracking above the recent 10-year average.

“Chums did pretty good this year, and coho are looking weak right now,” Wadle said. “But it just may be a little early to tell yet.”

Wadle attributes the overall disappointing commercial salmon season to several environmental factors.

“We have been seeing a bit of a drop in the food base, so that’s probably one explanation,” he said. “For several years, we’ve had over-escapement in Karluk, which may contribute to more competition for the fry in the lake.”

Ocean conditions are most likely also a factor, affecting all species, Wadle said, adding, “We just don’t know much about that.”

Wadle said pink salmon came back late this year, because of the late and cold spring, and never recovered.

“Basically the river systems didn’t have a lot of snow pack,” he said. “A lot of the smaller systems froze right into the gravel, which killed a lot of the eggs and the fry. It was very evident on the east side that that’s exactly what happened.”

Wadle also said he expected coho runs to be stronger than they have been this year, but it’s not too late for that to happen.

“They definitely might start coming in,” he said. “I’m not saying it’s over. It’s just looking a little weak in the harvest rate.”

Wadle said the Karluk River remains a big question, with the current total escapement at its lowest since 1984.

Fish and Game said surveys of the Karluk lagoon indicate a large buildup of pink salmon.

“Karluk has a big lagoon, and they typically sit in there for up to two or three weeks,” Wadle said. “That’s what they’re doing right now. It’s kind of hard to judge how weak the run is, other than the fact that there’s not a lot pushing these fish up through the weir.”

Wadle said that despite the low numbers, there may be at least one cause for optimism: the high prices being paid for coho salmon this year.

“Coho prices are pretty high this year, so I expect we’ll have quite a bit of interest in late-season coho,” he said. “We’ll continue to watch the streams, and if we think we’ll have sufficient numbers, we’ll allow some coho fishing.”

Wadle said that because of the high prices, some fishermen have actually faired better this year than last.

“Prices were high enough where some guys actually had a better season this year than they had last year, for seiners,” he said, adding, “I suspect set-netters had a pretty rough season on the west side.”

Mirror writer Erik Wander can be reached via e-mail at ewander@kodiakdailymirror.com.