An extensive survey on the impact of global warming in Alaska finds the majority of people see higher temperatures as a real threat and in Kodiak signs of its effect may be most apparent in its fisheries.

“Alaskan Opinions on Global Warming,” released earlier this week, is part of a three-year study in which 1,016 adults in Alaska participated in a 25-minute telephone interview probing public beliefs on global warming.

Over 81 percent of Alaskans are convinced global warming is happening, and 55 percent believe it is caused primarily by human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels, as opposed to normal cycles in the Earth’s climate.

Forty-three percent expect global warming will have dangerous impacts on Alaska within the next 10 years.

“Americans think of global warming as a distant problem in space and time. But climate change is happening here and now,” said Anthony Leiserowitz, a scientist and courtesy professor at the University of Oregon in Eugene who conducted the research.

The 31-page study is based on a federal grant supported by the National Science Foundation and the Center for Environmental Decisions at Columbia University in New York City. It was commissioned by Decision Research in Eugene, Ore., and conducted by Craciun Research Group in Anchorage.

“We wanted to look at Alaska because it is experiencing two to four times more warming than the rest of the world,” Leiserowitz said Wednesday during a telephone interview.

Leiserowitz said he interviewed environmental groups, educators, natural resource people and business and community leaders throughout the state during the past two years.

Leiserowitz, who holds a doctorate in geography, said he will continue another year researching the more basic question of why people perceive certain things as threats and others not.

“People tend to be afraid of things they don’t know about, and also things that bring a sense of dread,” said Leiserowitz, who combines disciplines of psychology, sociology and environment in his research.

“People are more concerned with things that are human- caused instead of natural caused, such as terrorism as opposed to earthquakes,” he said.

“Global warming doesn’t carry negative associations. But that could change,” Leiserowitz said.

Leiserowitz explained people fear nuclear power more than alcohol, but many die from alcoholism while very few die from nuclear power.

He said part of the problem of global warming is to understand fear.

The survey not only includes questions on global warming, but also a series of other questions such as one’s religion, education, annual salary and politics, as part of a standard survey profile in an attempt to gain perceptions on global warming risk, policy preferences and behaviors.

“Global warming, however, certainly has become politicized in this country,” Leiserowitz said. But, at the same time, he points out policy decisions will need to be forthcoming as part of the political process.

“With governments now debating what to do about global warming ­­— decisions that will affect Alaska for generations to come — hang in the balance, and Alaskans are clearly paying attention,” Leiserowitz said.

Among the survey findings are:

• Most Alaskans believe global warming is already causing or accelerating the loss of sea ice, melting permafrost, coastal erosion and forest fires in Alaska.

• A large majority of Alaskans report their local temperatures have increased and global warming is responsible.

• Two out of three Alaskans say that global warming will be bad for Alaska.

• Majorities expect over the next 50 years global warming will cause increased flooding of towns and villages, worse storms, fewer salmon and the extinction of the polar bear.

• Roughly half of Alaskans believe global warming is an urgent problem requiring immediate government action. Half also believe it is a longer-term problem requiring more study first.

• A plurality of Alaskans believe the State of Alaska should help Native villages facing severe coastal erosion move to safer ground.

• Most Alaskans support the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions from power plants and the signing of international treaties to reduce emissions.

• Democrats and liberals express stronger concern about global warming than do Republicans and conservatives.

• Majorities of Republicans and conservatives believe global warming is caused primarily by natural cycles, and is not a serious threat.

• More semi-urban and rural Alaskans believe global warming is currently dangerous and a serious threat than do urban or northern urban Alaskans.

Leiserowitz explained different parts of Alaska would face different threats.

“With warmer waters, there will be strange fish appearing that some have never seen before,” he said. “And warmer waters will cause disease in fish.

“There will be salmon appearing in streams where they have never been before,” he said, adding that migration paths may change and there may be fewer salmon.

Leiserowitz said fish are moving farther north to get to colder waters.

“A very small temperature change, less than a degree, has a big impact.”

“Strange fish are popping up all over the place,” he said.

Seals, walrus and polar bears are also affected.

“As the sea retreats, pups are left on the ice causing the adults to swim farther for food using up more energy, a factor that eventually will affect animal populations,” Leiserowitz said.

Some Alaska communities face more immediate threats than others. Lieserowitz cited Kivalina and Shishmaref in the Chukchi Sea, as villages in imminent danger from coastal erosion and flooding.

“There are communities that fear they are going to be swallowed up by the next storm,” Leiserowitz said.

In other areas, Leiserowitz said huge forest fires are becoming more severe and there are more occurrences of blight caused by the Spruce bark beetle.

Lieserowitz said over the coming year he plans surveys in Florida and Oregon.

He said results of the studies are to be published in peer-reviewed scientific journals, and are available to governmental planners and policymakers.

He said while in Alaska, he discovered there had been a perception that Alaskans were in a state of denial about global warming.

“But I found that is not the case. Alaskans are aware and concerned with global warming.”

Mirror writer Bryan Martin can be reached via e-mail at bmartin@kodiakdailymirror.com.